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V. DETERMINING CHILD CARE MARKET RATES Child Care Market Rate Survey 2023 Page | 38

2. Determining Accessibility of Child Care Based on Modeled Rates An analysis was performed to investigate the accessibility of child care based on the amount of care that can be purchased with existing market rates and the proposed market rate adjustments described above (the modeled rates). In this analysis, accessibility was expressed as the percent of children who attended centers and homes where the market rate (or modeled rate) would fully pay for the costs. The results for 2023 are compared with 2021 results in Table 24. Appendix D presents current, surveyed, and modeled rates by county. The methodology targeted the 75th percentile. For all child care facilities, the modeled rate would have paid for 58.7 percent of the children, 58.7 percent of the children in centers, and 59.7 percent of the children in homes. In contrast, the current market rate would have paid for 32.2 percent of all the children in child care facilities, 32.5 percent of the children in centers, and 25.3 percent of the children in homes. The subsidy rate paid for all facilities increased from 30.2 percent to 32.2 percent of children from 2021 to 2023. Subsidy rates for centers increased from 30.1 percent to 32.5 percent and subsidy rates for homes decreased from 34.5 percent to 25.3 percent. Variation in modeled rates between the two survey cycles was large, ranging from about 12 to 14 percentage points difference across facility types. Table 24. Accessibility of Child Care Using the Subsidy Rate and Modeled Rate for All Facilities: 2023. Type Facility / Year Total Number of Children Percent of Children Covered by Subsidy Rate Modeled Rate 2023 All Facilities 144,912 32.2 58.7 Centers 138,747 32.5 58.7 Homes 6,165 25.3 59.7 2021 All Facilities 136,224 30.2 72.5 Centers 130,364 30.1 72.6 Homes 5,860 34.5 71.7

Table 25 contains information on the accessibility of child care by age category and star level of the center in which the child is enrolled. For centers, the greatest discrepancy between current subsidy rates and modeled rates is for two-star centers, regardless of age category. In these centers, the difference in modeled versus subsidy rates ranges from around 36 percent to 64 percent.