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Page 3 | December 9, 2025 Health and Human Services: Childcare Assistance Research completed by the Cradle to Career Policy Institute (CCPI) at the University of New Mexico broadly found when New Mexico increased Childcare Assistance to broader income populations, more children in families with incomes at 100 percent FPL were eligible for Childcare Assistance, but fewer of those families were served. As shown in the CCPI report, examining 2023 data on capacity and children served found a 6.8 percent reduction since 2019 in the number of Childcare Assistance slots being used by families with incomes at or below 100 percent FPL. Moreover, the CCPI report found that between fall 2019 and spring 2023, the number of eligible children with incomes up to 100 percent of the FPL increased from 44,295 to 47,134—or by 6.4 percent—despite the decrease in slots taken by these families.

Research on Expansion of Income Support Programs

Supporting CCPI data research broadly shows, as income support programs are expanded through increased eligibility—individuals with fewer resources, including education, income, or social capital—have a more difficult time accessing programs because they have fewer resources. Lower-income, lower- resource families can be crowded out by families with more resources and time to secure services. i Another contributing factor might relate to provider type availability because the numbers of registered homes have decreased significantly. Families with incomes at or below 200 percent of the FPL are more likely to use registered homes. However, the number of registered homes decreased by 75 percent between 2019 and 2025, which may have partially contributed to the crowding out effect. Furthermore, as administrative burdens increase, applying for or maintaining benefits disproportionately deters those most in need, with bureaucracies often favoring clients that are “easier to serve.”ii This evidence broadly points to income support expansions disfavoring those most in need of the service provided by the program, and literature focused specifically on childcare assistance points to similar findings. Moreover, it is possible that existing customers who are already paying for childcare simply access childcare assistance and system-wide enrollment does not really increase. These components are worthy of additional study.

Capacity. With recent eligibility expansions, demand for subsidized care is increasing more quickly than supply and emerging trends indicate a need for additional attention to specific eligible groups, including those with incomes under 100 percent of the FPL and children under the age of 2. LFC analysis in the 2025 Early Childhood Accountability Report found that while the precise number of needed childcare slots for all age groups is unknown, current demand likely remains unmet. When looking more granularly, capacity for children under the age of 2 continues to fall short of need, with only 32 childcare slots for every 100 children under the age of 2 in New Mexico. The ratio of infant slots at childcare providers to the estimated number of children under 2 years old in each county highlights the disparity in availability of infant care. Sandoval County, with 660 slots for 449 children, has the largest ratio at 1.47 (a ratio over 1 indicates a surplus of slots). The extra slots suggest childcare providers in the county may be accommodating families who cannot get access to childcare in Bernalillo County. Bernalillo County has a ratio of 0.4—40 slots for every 100 children under the age of 2—while Doña Ana and Santa Fe counties, the other two large population centers in New Mexico, have ratios of 0.48 and 0.18, respectively.

Ratio of Infant Slots to Children Under Two by County County Births Per Two Years from Census Infant Slots Ratio Bernalillo 13090 5222 0.40 Catron 8 2 0.26 Chaves 1451 444 0.31 Cibola 554 103 0.19 Colfax 208 14 0.07 Curry 1474 501 0.34 De Baca 53 2 0.04 Dona Ana 4898 2341 0.48 Eddy 1636 191 0.12 Grant 483 195 0.40 Guadalupe 86 28 0.32 Harding 8 0 0.00 Hidalgo 94 24 0.25 Lea 2216 465 0.21 Lincoln 313 68 0.22 Los Alamos 348 223 0.64 Luna 703 128 0.18 McKinley 1654 337 0.20 Mora 38 16 0.42 Otero 1678 421 0.25 Quay 93 48 0.52 Rio Arriba 713 139 0.20 Roosevelt 463 167 0.36 San Juan 2878 689 0.24 San Miguel 2677 122 0.05 Sandoval 449 660 1.47 Santa Fe 2330 408 0.18 Sierra 146 39 0.27 Socorro 269 93 0.35 Toas 438 134 0.31 Torrance 285 67 0.23 Union 133 0 0.00 Valencia 1806 459 0.25 Source: LFC files 47,134 47,115 44,295 9,402 8,803 10,091 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 2023 2022 2019 Eligible Versus Enrolled Children Under 100 Percent FPL Enrolled Eligible Source: CCPI